What we forecast
For each crop and state: the range the median mandi price will most likely stay in over the next 7 days — an 80% range.
How we check
For every week of the past 3 years we ask: "From the data up to that day, what would this model have said — and what really happened?" Four kinds of model compete. An outlook is shown only if the best one meets all four rules:
- The real price stayed inside the range in at least 78% of weeks
- The range is no wider than 12% of the price (a very wide range is no use)
- It beat the simple "same week last year" method by at least 10%
- It was tested on at least 150 weeks
Crop-and-state pairs that don't meet them get no outlook. The check is re-run every Sunday.
0 crop-and-state outlooks published now (0 tested)
No outlook published yet — the 3-year price history is still being gathered.